March 04, 2026

Farmer Sentiment Rebounds

Farmer sentiment improved in February as the Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index rose from 113 points in January to 116. The Current Conditions Index increased by 11 points, while the Future Expectations Index dropped one point. The Future Expectations Index this month was 45 points lower than last year’s February index, reaching its lowest level since September 2024. Although concerns about agricultural exports moderated somewhat from the previous month, they’re still higher than those expressed in December. In addition, the percentage of respondents who think the U.S. is headed in the “right direction” declined for the second month in a row. Almost 44 percent of respondents to the survey indicated that their farm operations were worse off in February than they were a year earlier. About 15 percent of respondents plan to reduce the size of their operations, while 34 percent said they don’t plan to grow at all. 

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Farm Machinery Manufacturers Facing Headwinds

The U.S. farm machinery equipment market experienced challenges across many fronts in 2025. Recent data suggests many new and used equipment sales categories continued to decline last year. Additionally, lower grain prices and farm incomes, along with the elevated cost of borrowing money, have dampened farmer demand for equipment and machinery. Major manufacturers like Deere, CNH Industrial, and AGCO are adjusting their inventories by scaling back production. Farmdoc Daily from the University of Illinois said the most significant challenge was the tariffs implemented in 2025, which further squeezed manufacturer margins. In 2020, farm tractor sales grew by 17.7 percent, and combine sales rose by almost five percent. A market downturn became more pronounced in 2023 and continued sharply the following year. But despite the decline in sales, machinery and equipment prices remain high. The National Agricultural Statistics Service said the index for machinery prices increased 0.8 percent in December 2025 compared to 2024.  

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AFBF Urges Continued Science-Based Response to NWS

As New World Screwworm continues to pose a threat to the U.S. cattle herd and farm economy, American Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall sent a letter to USDA urging a continued science-based approach to addressing the threat. The letter urges Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins to keep the southern border closed to cattle imports until it’s clear Mexico is capable of controlling the pest. “To date, the northernmost active case of NWS is only 70 miles from the southern border with Mexico, which is too close for comfort,” Duvall said in the letter. “By trusting the science, USDA can make decisions that ultimately protect the health and economic viability of the U.S. cattle herd.” He also said USDA’s ability to drop sterile flies into the affected area is greatly appreciated, as is Mexico’s willingness to participate in controlling this destructive pest. 

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USGBC Members Talk Maritime Shipping in Panama

In February, the U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council conducted a maritime fuels mission in Panama with a delegation of ethanol industry leaders and Council members. USGBC Regional Director of Latin America Marri Tejada (tay-HA-dah) said, “Maritime fuel could be a promising opportunity for the U.S. ethanol industry, representing the next frontier in biofuel integration.” She also said Panama is critical to the global maritime sector, and developing interest in U.S. ethanol as a maritime fuel input in this strategic location will elevate and highlight its benefits to the shipping industry worldwide. During the visit, the delegation engaged a broad range of stakeholders, including government officials, the Panama Canal Authority, private sector operators, industry associations, and members of the international maritime community. A key objective was assessing the feasibility of integrating ethanol into Panama’s maritime fuel sector, aligned with the country’s decarbonization roadmap, and the Panama Canal’s evolving fuel strategy.  

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Brazil Soybean Crop Forecast Shrinks

Consultant groups like AgRural and StoneX lowered their forecasts for Brazil’s 2025-2026 soybean output, as yield losses caused by bad weather in the state of Rio Grande (GRAHN-day) do Sul weigh on overall production. AgRural estimated the country’s soybean output at 178 million metric tons, lowering its forecast from 181 million tons, citing those drought-related losses. Those losses were “partially offset by higher yields in other states.” Brazilian farmers had harvested 39 percent of their soybeans as of late last week. StoneX is predicting Brazil’s output to reach 177.8 million metric tons, 2.1 percent less than prior estimates. Despite the downward revision, the new forecast still points to a record crop. StoneX said weather issues have caused some damage to crops, especially in Rio Grande do Sul, where rains arrived late and were quite irregular. There may be revisions yet to come as the harvest cycle in Rio Grande do Sul typically runs later than in other states. 

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Corn Used in Ethanol Production Falls

USDA data shows that corn used to produce ethanol last month declined year-over-year. About 461 million bushels of corn were used to produce ethanol in January, down from 467.9 million bushels used in the same month a year earlier. The agency said that, of that total, about 422.9 million bushels were used in dry mill production, while the rest, approximately 44.6 million bushels, were used in wet milling.  Production of dried distillers’ grains with solubles fell to 1.78 million metric tons from 1.85 million tons at the same point last year. Distillers’ wet grains, with 65 percent moisture or more, rose to 1.34 million metric tons, up from 1.26 million. Soybean crush in January jumped to 228 million bushels, up from 213 million during the same month in 2025. Crude oil production rose four percent on an annual basis to 2.63 billion pounds, while refined oil output totaled 1.82 billion pounds, a six percent year-over-year increase. 

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