December 31, 2025

Beef Prices Predicted to Keep Climbing in 2026

Beef prices are projected to continue increasing in 2026 as U.S. beef production continues to decline, with no obvious signs of a rebuilding cattle herd. That comes from John Lovett of the University of Arkansas System Division of Agriculture. At the beginning of 2025, U.S. cattle inventories were at their lowest point since the 1950s, and the industry has been in liquidation mode since it peaked at 94.7 million head in 2019. “Since then,” Lovett said, “the nation’s beef herd has decreased by eight million head of cattle.” Liquidating cattle inventories is one phase of a typical cattle cycle, which is a ten-to-12-year pattern of expanding and contracting cattle numbers, driven largely by changes in producer profitability and worsened by drought. Bloomberg said cheap beef could be driven further out of reach for many consumers as Brazil, another large cattle supplier, is heading into a period of shrinking cattle numbers that could push global prices higher. 

***********************************************************************************
USDA “Batching” Deadline in January

The USDA’s Natural Resources Conservation Service announced the establishment of a “batching deadline” of January 15, 2026, for the first funding round of key conservation programs. This national batching deadline ensures producers have a clear, consistent timeline for participating in EQIP, CSP, the Agricultural Conservation Easement Program, and Agricultural Management Assistance. This includes the new NRCS Regenerative Pilot Program, which provides targeted farmer-first assistance through EQIP and CSP. “The NRCS team continues its commitment to America’s producers by advancing conservation, strengthening service delivery, and keeping our promise to the men and women who feed and fuel our nation,” said NRCS Chief Aubrey Bettencourt. NRCS programs are continuous sign-up programs, but due to the government shutdown, the agency is implementing an initial national batching period to ensure producers have access to funding and support. National and State Conservation Innovation Grants will follow later in 2026. 

***********************************************************************************
CARB Will Sunset Outdated Biodiesel Restrictions

Clean Fuels Alliance America welcomed a ruling by the California Air Resources Board to sunset the oxides of nitrogen mitigation requirement for biodiesel blends of up to B20, or 20 percent biodiesel, in the Alternative Diesel Fuel (ADF) regulation. Clean Fuels first called for sunsetting the B20 restrictions in the ADF in 2022, after CARB data showed the regulator triggers for lifting the restrictions had been met. California previously required producers to mix a minimum of 55 percent renewable diesel with biodiesel blends from B6 to B20 to mitigate the oxides of nitrogen concerns in older heavy-duty vehicles. CARB’s own emissions modeling showed this step is not needed and has contributed to keeping overall biodiesel blends below ten percent. While recent CARB actions have created regulatory headwinds for biodiesel, the decision to sunset the oxide mitigation requirement is a constructive step forward that’s based on solid data. 

**********************************************************************************
USDA Accepting Applications for Trade Mission to the Philippines

The USDA is accepting applications for its agribusiness trade mission to the Philippines, taking place April 13–16, 2026. U.S. exporters interested in exploring trade opportunities in the Philippines’ thriving market and rapidly growing economy must apply by Friday, January 9, 2026. “U.S. agricultural exporters have an abundance of new opportunities in the Philippines,” said Luke Lindberg, USDA’s Undersecretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs. “This trade mission will connect U.S. producers with key buyers in the Philippines, expand economic opportunities, support rural prosperity, and keep American agricultural products globally competitive.” The Philippines is the ninth-largest export market for America’s agricultural and food exports, averaging $3.6 billion annually during the last five years. For U.S. companies interested in exploring the market, strong export opportunities include beef, pork, poultry, dairy, fruits, vegetables, and many other commodities. While in Manila, participants will conduct several business-to-business meetings with potential importers and attend on-site visits. 

***********************************************************************************
Baldwin Calls for Rejecting Rail Industry Mega Merger

Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) called on the Surface Transportation Board to reject the merger application filed by Union Pacific to acquire Norfolk Southern. If approved, the merger would greatly reduce competition in Class I rail and worsen the already poor service and high costs experienced by farmers and food manufacturers while jacking up consumer costs as businesses pay more to get their products to market. “As farm families watch the cost of almost everything skyrocket, the last thing they need is a rail merger that all but promises to raise prices and worsen already inadequate service for farmers, manufacturers, and businesses,” Baldwin said. “Approving this merger would take us in the wrong direction by stifling competition, worsening service, and raising costs on the consumers and businesses who are already facing growing headwinds because of the Trump administration’s trade policies.” The merger would be the most significant consolidation in freight rail in decades and reshape the entire rail industry. 

***********************************************************************************
AFT Announces New Initiative to Empower Farmers and Ranchers

During the Governor’s Summit on Agricultural Viability in Idaho, American Farmland Trust announced a new initiative called “Thriving Farms and Ranches” during the event. The Governor’s Summit explored the challenges of balancing the growth of cities and towns with Idaho’s valuable agricultural economy, as working lands are being lost at an alarming rate. “We know that one of the best ways to protect farm and ranch lands is to keep them in production,” said Addie Candib, AFT’s Western Managing Director. “At a time when farmers and ranchers face increasing headwinds, it’s imperative that we invest in the programs and policies that support our working lands.” Through the initiative, AFT will work to ensure farmers and ranchers can be more financially secure, invest in the long-term future of their operations, and attract the next generation of the nation’s farmers. AFT will combine existing programs to strengthen, diversify, and grow markets, make conservation investments, and advance policies to support U.S. agriculture. 

***********************************************************************************