December 04, 2025
Experts Split on China Meeting Soybean Pledge
Commodity experts and ag economists appear split on whether China will actually buy 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025. Bloomberg said the pledge is underscoring a wider hope in the market that the fragile trade truce can hold on. Traders said commercial and state-owned importers like COFCO (KOFF-coh) will take more shipments in the weeks ahead. Farm Journal’s November Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor said more than 75 percent of economists surveyed say China won’t purchase that amount of soybeans this year. Only 24 percent think they will. Arlan Suderman (SOO-der-man), the chief commodities economist at StoneX, said the market is assuming something less than the full 12 million metric ton pledge. “I think the market has priced in expectations of eight to ten million metric tons, and they’ll take it during the marketing year between now and the end of August,” Suderman told Farm Journal.
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More Soybean Shipments Heading to China
After a tariff war stalled trade for months, Reuters said shipments of U.S. crops headed to China are picking up in number. At least six large cargo vessels are scheduled to fill up with soybeans at Gulf Coast terminals through mid-December. A shipping schedule that was seen by Reuters this week said a seventh U.S. soybean cargo was loaded during the previous weekend and is already headed to China, the first shipment since May. While the White House announced that China agreed to buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of this month, Beijing has yet to confirm any details about potential promises to purchase large volumes of U.S. soybeans. USDA data said Chinese importers booked nearly two million metric tons of U.S. soybeans last month for delivery in the 2025-2026 marketing year that ends in August 2026. U.S. sorghum shipments have also restarted to China.
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U.S.-EU Trade Deal Advances
The 27 member-states in the European Union approved the European Commission’s trade agreement with the U.S. However, Mexico Business News said the European Parliament will challenge the elements i considers to be unfair after President Donald Trump tripled tariffs on EU products while Brussels eliminated duties on U.S. imports. In late November, the EU countries agreed to lower tariffs on U.S. imports under a deal struck last summer between the Commission and the White House. Critics said the deal presents multiple disadvantages to EU exports. A proposal to introduce a “sunset clause” that would end the tariff cuts after five years if the deal doesn’t get renewed was debated and eventually shot down in discussions. The Commission said the deal was the “best achievable,” and to reject it would have caused the EU even greater disadvantages. Both the Council and Parliament must agree on the final text by next spring.
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Research Shows Stagnant Biosecurity Efforts in Dairy
New research shows that U.S. dairy farmers are more reactive than proactive when it comes to on-farm biosecurity. A Farm Journal survey shows many producers are neglecting the basics, leaving their operations vulnerable to ever-evolving threats. The new research was released this week at the MILK Business Conference. Dairy Herd Management said the study found farm hygiene and herd health aren’t top of mind on all farms. One-third of farms don’t proactively review their biosecurity plans, which indicates a lack of ongoing commitment to their plans or adaptation to threats. The survey did find a bit of good news as 70 percent of the larger dairies said they’re already working on improving their biosecurity programs. While 68 percent of farmers with at least 250 dairy cows report established biosecurity plans, 34 percent admit they don’t review those plans regularly. Over 20 percent neglect to secure access to their barns and housing.
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Sugar Growers Give Back During the Holidays
America’s sugarbeet growers are sharing the spirit of connection during the holiday season in a variety of ways. For example, the Michigan Sugar Company celebrated National Real Sugar Day by volunteering at the company’s annual United Way Sugar Distribution Day, donating more than 57,000 pounds of Real Pioneer Sugar to more than 100 nonprofits, many of them food pantries. The Domino Sugar Refinery of Baltimore launched an Oyster Gardening Program. Oysters act as a natural filtration system to keep water clean. With oyster populations declining, Domino employees lower cages of baby oysters into a nearby river to begin growth. American Crystal Sugar employees in the Red River Valley of Minnesota and North Dakota give five cents for every ton of sugarbeets harvested to local charities where employees live and work. Employee gifts mean over 6,000 families in the Red River Valley will have sugar in their holiday meal boxes this season.
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Farm Equipment Dealer Sues Tractor Manufacturer
Burks Tractor, an Idaho-based dealership, filed a lawsuit against Monarch Tractor of California. The suit accuses the California-based startup of a breach of contract and warranty violations after its tractors failed to operate autonomously. The dealership said the ten tractors it bought via interest-bearing financing for almost $800,000 are defective and didn’t live up to the driver-optional, or autonomous, claims of the company. Burks bought the tractors in early 2024 with the intent of being among the California company’s first retail dealers. Burks said Monarch misrepresented the tractors as fully autonomous and not limited by location or time. An article in Farm Equipment Magazine said Monarch attempted to make the units work autonomously but failed, eventually admitting to the limitations but refusing to take back the defective inventory. A November 19 letter from Monarch Tractor’s HR Department to 102 employees warned of pending layoffs while changing the business to software licensing.
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