National Ag News for October 21, 2025

U.S. to Buy Argentinian Beef?

A weekend report from the Associated Press said the U.S. may purchase Argentinian beef in an attempt to bring down the price of beef at U.S. grocery stores. “We would buy some beef from Argentina,” President Donald Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One during a flight from Florida to Washington. “If we do that, it will bring our beef prices down.” The AP said the move comes after the president promised to address the issue as a part of his efforts to keep inflation in check, noting that U.S. beef prices have been “stubbornly high” for a number of reasons, including drought and reduced imports from Mexico due to the New World Screwworm. Bloomberg said Trump didn’t initially provide details on what his “deal” to bring down beef prices entailed, but noted that beef was one area where his efforts to fight inflation hadn’t paid enough dividends for consumers. 

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Efforts to Diffuse a U.S. Tariff Hike

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said he’ll be meeting with Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng this week to try to fend off an escalation of U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods that President Donald Trump said is unsustainable. Bessent and He spoke on the phone late last week and engaged in what the Secretary called “frank and detailed discussions regarding U.S. and China trade.” He said on Friday that the two will meet in person this week to continue those discussions. The two hammered out a temporary tariff truce that will expire on November 10. President Donald Trump threatened an additional 100 percent tariff on Chinese imports after Beijing threatened to limit rare Earth exports. Asked if such a high tariff was sustainable and what it might do to the U.S. economy, Trump replied that,”It’s not sustainable, but that’s what the number is, because they forced me to do that.”  

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Weekly Phosphate, Potash Prices Fall

A new report from Mizhuo investment bank  (mih-ZOO-hoe) said potash and phosphate fell last week, while nitrogen was mostly unchanged. The price of potash in New Orleans fell about 1.5 percent to $328 per ton, while Midwest costs declined 0.7 percent to $373 a ton. The report said phosphate prices dropped 0.3 percent to $851 a ton. “Phosphate affordability is at its lowest level since 2008, and continues to raise concerns about demand referral and destruction,” Mizuho said. Nitrogen prices were mostly unchanged last week at about $376 a ton in New Orleans and $435 per ton in the Midwest. “Supply disruptions and delays in capacities coming online have led to higher ammonia prices, with the benchmark Tampa price recently settled up $40 in October following a $53-per-metric-ton increase in September,” Mizuho said in its report. Despite some volatility and recent declines, overall fertilizer prices are still considered high compared to long-term averages. 

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Farm Journal Survey says Corn Yields are Decreasing

The government shutdown and resulting absence of USDA data has left a big void in the volatile grain and oilseed markets. In order to fill the gap, Farm Journal conducted a survey to get an update on yields and harvest progress as well as other topics on the minds of producers. The biggest takeaway is that U.S. corn yields are estimated to be lower compared with USDA’s September estimates in six of the seven Pro Farmer Crop Tour states. Due to disease pressure and dry weather, the 2025 national yield could be lower than the 2024 average of 179.3 bushels. As of mid-October, yields are steady to lower for 74 percent of the respondents from the Crop Tour states. That’s a long way from the higher production for each state’s estimate in USDA’s September Crop Production Report. The biggest decline appears to be in Illinois, down seven percent from September. 

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Optimism for the Ethanol Industry

The U.S. Grains and Global Bioproducts Council is holding its annual Global Ethanol Summit in Washington, D.C.. At the summit, Growth Energy CEO Emily Skor expressed optimism for the future of bioethanol, while highlighting the positive impact that pro-bioethanol policies have on agriculture. “Bioethanol’s future has never been clearer, and our outlook has never been more positive,” Skor said. “We deliver a more affordable, high-octane fuel choice that can be  used in more than a billion gas-powered cars and trucks on roads around the globe today.” All over the world, she added, from Canada to Brazil to Japan, countries are increasing their commitments to use more bioethanol at higher blends. Skor also noted bioethanol’s advantages as a tool for other countries to enhance their trade relationship with the U.S. Skor said that when America invests in bioethanol, the country is investing in the rural economy, supporting farmers, and boosting GDP. 

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The Farmer’s Share of Halloween Treats is Getting Smaller

Americans are forecast to spend $3.9 billion on candy this Halloween, according to the National Retail Federation. That’s up from $3.6 billion last year and $3.1 billion in 2023. The American Sugar Alliance said the retail price of the items they surveyed increased an average of 19 percent. But the cost of sugar in each item increased an average of 33 percent. The cost of planting, cultivating, harvesting, and processing the sugarbeets and sugarcane that become the real sugar in your favorite Halloween treats has skyrocketed, and the prices American sugar producers receive for their sugar has decreased. For example, a ten-ounce bag of Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups cost $5.49 last year, with the farmer’s share at 21 cents. This year, the cost is $6.49, and the farmer’s share is down to 13 cents. In two years, the prices of beet sugar and cane sugar have fallen 42 and 24 percent, respectively. 

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