October 17, 2025
Will Interest Rate Cuts Continue?
Economic analysts like CoBank say recent economic data has generally been more positive in nature, tempering expectations for significant interest rate cuts before the end of the year. A new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange said the most likely scenario is an additional four or five cuts of 25 basis points through 2026, leaving the overnight rate around three percent by the end of next year. Tariff policy uncertainty, the sharp drop in immigration, and a massive surge in AI investments have made interpreting traditional economic reports more difficult. The CoBank report suggests sharp swings in monthly import volumes, a flatter working-age population growth, and a soaring stock market make it more difficult to gauge how “Main Street” America is doing economically. “The intense politicization of attitudes has rendered longstanding public sentiment surveys erratic and unhelpful in gauging actual economic conditions,” said Rob Fox, vice president of the Knowledge Exchange.
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Kansas City Fed Launches Center for Agriculture and the Economy
The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City launched the Center for Agriculture and the Economy. This initiative underscores the Bank’s ongoing commitment to including perspectives from agriculture and rural areas in discussions on the national economy. “For many years, the Kansas City Fed has provided critical insights into one of the nation’s most vital industries, which is agriculture,” said Jeff Schmid, president and CEO of the Kansas City Fed. “The establishment of the Center formally recognizes our District’s investment in the area and highlights the vital importance that we place on gathering insights from all of those who have a role in the ag economy.” The new Center will serve as a resource within the Federal Reserve System by providing timely analysis of industry developments and conducting ongoing research on the agricultural economy and the rural regions where production predominates. Production agriculture is central to the Tenth District’s overall economy.
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China Holding Off on Brazil Soybean Purchases
High premiums on Brazilian cargoes are discouraging soybean buyers in China, which means the country has yet to secure much of its needed soybean supply for December and January. Reuters says the development could prompt the Chinese government to tap state reserves to meet the near-term needs. China covered its needs through November with hefty buys from Argentina in recent weeks, but still needs eight to nine million metric tons for December and January. Escalating Washington-Beijing trade tensions continue to shut American soybeans from the market. “China isn’t buying U.S. beans because of the trade war, and Brazilian beans have become too expensive,” one oilseed trader at an international trading company that supplies agricultural products to China told Reuters anonymously. “China might end up using its own reserves for its year-end needs and into early next year, and will wait until the new South American harvest comes in.” ***********************************************************************************
USDA Pushes Back Against Texas Ag Commissioner
The USDA is pushing back against Texas Ag Commissioner Sid Miller. During a conversation with RFD-TV, a USDA spokesperson said Miller is proposing “ineffective solutions” in the fight against the New World Screwworm. In an exclusive statement to RFD-TV, the agency defended its $750 million plan to build a sterile fly production facility at the southern border, calling it the “most aggressive response in U.S. history.” The USDA also accused Miller of disregarding proven methods for cheap publicity. “USDA, in conjunction with the entire federal government, has launched the most aggressive plan to combat the New World Screwworm in our country’s history, including committing up to $750 million to build a sterile fly production facility near the Southern Border at Moore Air Force Base,” the spokesman said. “Commissioner Miller is blatantly disregarding tried and true strategies in favor of clickbait publicity stunts instead of working with us to find real solutions.”
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FBN Report Shows Crop Protection Price Trends and Forecasts
The Farmers Business Network issued its annual crop protection market report, highlighting its outlook for pricing and supply trends. “There’s a lot of uncertainty going into 2026, and you can contrast that to 2025, where tariffs were mostly known going into spring,” said John Appel, FBN vice president of category management. “2026 is going to be structurally very different.” He also said that at certain points in 2025, product prices were at multi-year lows, so there was no more room to go down. He said now that the channel is largely depleted, “We know that, structurally, these tariffs are going to come into place from a cost perspective.” FBN anticipates the pricing for glyphosate and glufosinate coming from China rising because of a 20 percent tariff. “Others like 2,4-D, you have significant duties on products like that, and on top of that, countervailing and anti-dumping duties could be up to 170 percent,” he added.
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Making Farming Accessible for Future Generations
Farm Foundation, in partnership with The Mosaic Company for Sustainable Food Systems and the PepsiCo Foundation, announced the launch of FarmPath. It’s a national program designed to create more resilient, diversified, and innovative farming communities to strengthen rural economies, support food security, and promote a flourishing future for American agriculture. FarmPath will equip the next generation by increasing the success rate of beginning farmers by taking a number of steps, including equipping them with mentorship, planning tools, and practical pathways to accomplish their goals. It will also set new farmers up with mentors and experts to help them preserve and practice critical skills. FarmPath will build a supportive community with a cohort-based approach grounded in shared experiences and mutual support, as well as scaling sustainable practices and natural resources use through hands-on and virtual training. “FarmPath is about opening doors and sharing wisdom,” said Shari Rogge-Fidler, president of Farm Foundation.
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