October 14, 2025
New 100 Percent Tariff on China by November?
The Chinese government announced it would curb critical mineral exports to countries like the United States, sparking an immediate response from the White House. President Donald Trump threatened to up the ante in the trade war with promises to sharply hike tariffs in response to the Chinese government’s mineral export plan. Reuters said Trump promised additional duties of 100 percent on China’s U.S.-bound exports, along with new export controls on any and all critical software by November 1. That’s a mere nine days before the existing tariff relief will expire. President Trump also appeared to question the possibility of keeping a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in a couple of weeks. “I haven’t canceled it,” Trump told reporters. “I would assume we might have it, but Beijing has never confirmed the meeting.” The American Soybean Association expressed significant concerns that no meeting would push back a possible trade agreement.
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New Research Shows Benefits of Expanded Ethanol Access
If Congress passed legislation that allowed for year-round, nationwide access to E15 fuel, corn use in ethanol could increase by 50 percent at full implementation, supporting a higher market price for corn. New analysis from the National Corn Growers Association says it would also promote energy stability for Americans. ”Congress could address the economic crisis affecting corn growers by passing legislation that would make higher blends of ethanol readily accessible to all Americans,” said NCGA President Jed Bower. “We urge Congress to act now to make that happen.” The NCGA has spent months calling on Congress to pass the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025, which would eliminate an outdated regulation that prevents the sale of fuel with 15 percent ethanol blends, referred to as E15. The organization has highlighted research showing that year-round access to E15 helps farmers and rural communities while boosting energy security.
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U.S. Combine Sales Down 40 Percent
The Association of Equipment Manufacturers’ monthly Flash Report said the sales of all tractors during September 2025, in the U.S., were up four percent from the same month last year. In September, dealers sold a total of 17,729 tractors, which compares to 17,033 sold in September 2024. For the month, two-wheel drive smaller tractors under 40 horsepower sales were up three percent from last year, while those 40 and under 100 horsepower were up 17 percent. That was offset by a sharp drop in the sales of larger tractor models. Combine sales in September totaled 414, which was down 22 percent from the same time last year. For the year, tractor sales are down eight percent. One-hundred-plus-horsepower tractor sales are down 25 percent, while sales of four-wheel-drive tractors are down 39 percent. For the year, combine sales totaled 2,668 through September, which is 40 percent below the same time last year.
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Wheat Growers Meet Lawmakers at a Critical Time
National Sorghum Producers brought their grower-leaders to Washington, D.C., at one of the most critical moments in recent memory. From South Texas to South Dakota, members took time away from harvest to make sure lawmakers understand what sorghum growers are facing right now: stalled trade, elevated input costs, and the urgency for biofuel policy and farm aid. Even with the federal government shut down, NSP’s fly-in schedule was full. The message was a straightforward one: trade access is make-or-break for sorghum right now, and growers need near-term relief while fair trade deals are negotiated. Leaders say they pressed for concrete avenues to move sorghum, such as China, India, Vietnam, and Mexico, and reminded every office that sorghum has been hit hard by the current lack of purchases from China. They also urged durable year-round E15 access and clear signals that keep plants running and the basis supported across the Sorghum Belt.
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Farmland Market Didn’t Find Direction in Q3
The farmland market continued its year-long search for direction in the third quarter. The economists at Agricultural Economic Insights say that, depending on the survey and the time frame, farmland prices moved slightly up, down a bit, or stayed flat. This is evidence of a market that is plateauing and trying to find reasons for prices to go either up or down. The factors influencing the land market continued to be in flux, with more questions than answers at this juncture. Activity in the farmland market during the fourth quarter of 2025 and into 2026 will depend on buyers’ and sellers’ views of the ever-changing factors. The supply of farmland for sale and the level of demand to buy it will continue to be a big influencing factor in the land market. One of the biggest unknowns is the geopolitical factor, including tariffs, trade negotiations, and U.S. grain and livestock exports.
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Newton Returns to the Farm Bureau
Farm Bureau veteran Dr. John Newton returns to the American Farm Bureau Federation team on October 20 to serve as the Vice President of Public Policy and Economic Analysis. In this role, he will lead AFBF’s government relations and advocacy staff and serve as chief economist, guiding the Farm Bureau’s team of economists. Dr. Newton previously served as Farm Bureau’s chief economist from 2018 to 2021. He returns to AFBF after serving as the chief economist for the Senate Ag Committee from 2021 to 2024. Most recently, Newton was part of the Farm Credit System as the executive head of Terrain. “He was a fantastic chief economist for us and has demonstrated his impressive leadership skills in several roles since and throughout his 20 years in agriculture,” said Farm Bureau President Zippy Duvall. “He’s passionate about serving farmers and ranchers and will put that to work in his new role.”
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