September 15, 2025
Key Takeaways from September WASDE
The September World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates Report today included farm surveys along with soybean pod counts and corn ear weights. For the 2025-26 marketing year, U.S. ending stocks were reported as:
• Corn at 2.11 billion bushels, nearly unchanged from 2.117 billion last month, but above the 2.011 billion trade estimate.
• Soybeans at 300 million bushels, up from 290 million last month, and above the 288 million bushels traders expected.
Ohio Country Journal reports that after the report was released, corn was down 1 cent, soybeans up 3 cents, and wheat down 4 cents. Prior to the noon report, corn was up 4 cents, soybeans up 8 cents, and wheat down 2 cents. Both corn and soybeans remain in bear market mode, but in two vastly different bearish scenarios. Corn is a “supply bear,” due to record U.S. corn production and yields. Note that U.S. corn exports are strong, increasing with seven WASDE reports in the 2024-25 marketing year. Many expect that the strong corn export picture will continue into the new crop marketing year, which began on September 1. Soybeans are in a “demand bear,” due to huge demand concerns for U.S. exports. China remains determined not to buy U.S. soybeans due to tariff concerns.
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Conab Raises Brazil Soybean, Corn Production Estimates
Brazil’s farmers harvested a record 171.47 million MT of soybeans and a record 139.67 million MT of corn in the 2024/2025 season, Brazilian crop agency Conab said on Thursday in its final grain production report covering the period. Reuters reports the final numbers represent a 1.82 million MT increase in soybean production and a 2.67 million MT rise in total corn production compared to Conab’s August forecast. Conab also revised soybean area and yields for all seasons between 2020/21 and 2024/25, resulting in a cumulative increase of 13.12 million MT in estimated production during the period. Conab also raised Brazil’s soybean export forecast for the 2024/25 season, saying the country will ship 400,000 MT more than it expected last month, or 106.65 million MT. Brazil sells most of its soybeans to China and continues to book sales due to stalled trade talks between the U.S. and China halfway through the prime of the U.S. soybean marketing season.
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Butter Price Continues to Drop
Butter prices have fallen to their lowest level since November 2021, dropping to $1.96 1/2 per pound on the close of Wednesday. Ever.Ag dairy analyst Katie Burgess says the sharp decline raises key questions: Why are prices falling at a time when demand typically increases, and could consumers see more aggressive grocery store promotions heading into the holiday season? Burgess says the collapse is largely driven by record-high butterfat levels on U.S. dairy farms. Advances in genetics and nutrition, such as improved genomic testing and specialized feed, have boosted the fat content in milk. This has led to an abundance of cream and, in turn, a surge in butter production. With bulk butter supplies swelling, prices have sunk to four-year lows, an unusual trend for late summer when prices typically rise. “In a typical year, you tend to see the price for bulk butter spike in September and October, right as we’re heading into that holiday baking season,” Burgess explains.
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Fertilizer Decisions for 2026 Crop Will Be a Balancing Act
Fertilizer prices aren’t at historic highs, but relative to last year’s prices and the current prices for crop commodities, they are elevated. According to data from USDA and analysis by University of Illinois Farmdoc, fertilizer prices in the state are 6% to 20% higher than early fall 2024. High yields lead to high nutrient removal rates, but next year, nutrient replacement and feeding a new crop will come at a higher cost. Pro Farmer reports the price trends weigh heavier on farmers who are starting next year’s crop with what could be a lower nutrient baseline. “We have two realities here. We have the reality of economics, and we have the reality of that crops have a core need for nutrients,” says Karl Wyant, Nutrien’s director of agronomy. Wyant says therein lies the balance for farmers — keep soils productive while considering the cost to do so. His best advice — root your decision in data.
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EPA Withdraws Proposed Rule for More Stringent Water Pollution Guidelines at Slaughterhouses
The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency has withdrawn a January 2024 proposed rule that would have reduced the discharge of nutrients and pollutants from meat packing plants and slaughterhouses. According to Successful Farming, the agency said it chose to withdraw the rules in an effort to prioritize the nation’s food supply and to keep food prices down. The proposed rules would have revised effluent limitations guidelines and standards, or ELG,s for the meat and poultry products industry. This industry, which the agency refers to as MPP, includes facilities that slaughter, dress, and pack meat and poultry products for human or animal consumption. “In the EPA’s judgment, it is not appropriate to impose additional regulation on the MPP industry, given Administration priorities and policy concerns, including protecting food supply and mitigating inflationary prices for American consumers following a protracted period of high inflation from 2020 through 2024.”
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State Board Awards $2.8 Million in Tax Relief to Solar Farm and $10 Million Loan to Cheese Factory
A South Dakota economic development board this week approved up to $2.8 million in tax relief for Grant Solar LLC to build a solar farm. The board also approved a ten-million dollar state loan to Bel Brands, a cheese factory known for producing mini-cheese wheels dipped in red wax, and a $7,500 state grant to help local businesses grow. Officials expect the projects to result in a combined $395 million in private investment and create 163 jobs. “We’re supporting a major expansion in food production, investing in renewable energy, and fueling local economic development,” Gov. Larry Rhoden said in a press release. “Each project strengthens our communities and ensures long-term growth for our state.” The Board of Economic Development approved the awards Wednesday.
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