September 03, 2025
Farmer Sentiment Falls Further in August
Farmer sentiment dipped for the third straight month in August. The Purdue University/CME Group Ag Economy Barometer dropped 10 points to 125. Producers expressed less optimism about the future, as reflected in the Index of Future Expectations, which fell 16 points to 123. That’s the lowest reading for the futures index since last September. Producers’ perspectives on current conditions changed little during the month, with the Current Conditions Index rising two points from July to 129 in August. Sentiment differed greatly among producers according to whether their operations relied mostly on crops or livestock. Crop producers responded to the survey with much less optimism than their livestock counterparts, reflecting the profitability disparity between the two enterprises. Beef cattle operations, in particular, are experiencing record profitability, thanks in part to the smallest cattle inventory since 1951. This stands in sharp contrast to the returns for crop production, which have weakened significantly in 2025.
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Trade Deficit Hits All-Time High in 2025
The U.S. ag trade deficit hit a record high in the first half of this year. Bloomberg said the value of agricultural exports trailed that of imports by $4.1 billion in June, a gap 14 percent wider than a year earlier. USDA data says that pushed the ag sector’s deficit to a staggering $28.6 billion for the first six months of this year. AgWeb says the trade deficit is one of the main reasons President Trump gave for imposing tariffs and working on new trade deals. Former USDA chief economist Joe Glauber told AgWeb that the trade imbalance shouldn’t be this alarming because of what’s under the surface. He said it’s important to keep in mind that America imports a lot of commodities it can’t produce domestically. The USDA numbers show that Mexico and Canada will remain the top two U.S. ag export markets, followed by the EU, Japan, and China.
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Dairy Heifer Inventories Will Shrink Further
The U.S. dairy industry is facing a possible shortage of its most important resource – milk cows. The number of replacement heifers available to enter the dairy herd as milk-producing cows has already fallen to a 20-year low. Based on new CoBank research, replacements could fall even further over the next two years before a recovery begins in 2027. These declining heifer inventories could limit growth in the milk supply, a looming concern for dairy processors with expansion plans underway. The U.S. is currently experiencing a historic $10 billion investment in new dairy processing facilities expected to come online through 2027. According to the new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange, the national dairy heifer shortage could persist and grow deeper in the next two years. Tight cattle supplies and record-high prices for beef calves prompted many dairy farmers to produce more calves destined for feedlots and fewer for milk barns.
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EPA Stifles Burdensome Wastewater Decisions
The EPA’s longstanding Meat and Poultry Effluent Guidelines and Standards will stand. Administrator Lee Zeldin announced that proposed changes to the regulation are unnecessary. In reaching that decision, the agency says existing federal wastewater regulations under the Clean Water Act are effective, and the burdens that proposed changes would inflict on meat and poultry processors are unwarranted. National Pork Producers Council President Duane Stateler said, “We applaud the administration and Administrator Zeldin for this commonsense approach to the Meat and Poultry Processing Rule. This rule would have provided no environmental benefits and been devastating to small and medium-sized meat processors across the country and the livestock farmers counting on them as markets for their animals.” The more significant permitting guidelines would have packed a significant punch for processors by requiring them to upgrade facilities and install costly new wastewater treatment technologies. EPA’s analysis showed most facilities couldn’t afford the required changes.
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National Pork Board Chooses a New CEO
The National Pork Board has named David Newman the organization’s new CEO. Newman was recently the NPB’s senior vice president of market growth. “After a thorough and thoughtful nationwide executive search process, we have found an exceptional and dedicated leader in agriculture to take the organization representing America’s nearly 60,000 pork producers into the future,” said Gordon Spronk, President of the NPB Board. “David has proven himself to be leadership-oriented, producer-focused, and outcomes-driven when it comes to ensuring the pork industry is addressing the challenges and opportunities ahead of us.” Newman received a doctorate in meat and animal science from North Dakota State University. “It’s a privilege to work for and on behalf of pork producers,” Newman said. “We make a flavorful, nutritious product that’s beloved by millions of people across the globe.” He also said that the checkoff is doing a lot of work to drive demand from new consumers.
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A Positive Step in Labor Reform
A federal court decision vacated a burdensome and unfair disaggregation labor rule, which is part of the 2023 Adverse Effect Wage Rate Rule.” “Farm Bureau is pleased that the Labor Department and a federal judge recognized that elements of the 2023 labor rule created an unfair wage structure that forced farmers to pay employees for jobs they may not usually perform,” Duvall said. “Farmers care about the men and women who choose to work on their farms, and they support good wages for their employees, but the rule didn’t align compensation with work performed.” The Farm Bureau has long advocated for reforms to the H-2A guestworker program to ensure workers are treated fairly and that farmers can afford to fill their labor needs. “We encourage leaders to continue along the path of reforming a broken system by improving the H-2A program and stabilizing the workforce for our farm families,” Duvall said.
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