August 27, 2025

Farm Incomes Dropping in Fed’s Ninth District

The Federal Reserve’s Ninth District in Minneapolis, Minnesota, has enjoyed good weather for crop production, but crop prices haven’t been friendly to farmers’ pocketbooks. A North Dakota farm lender told the Federal Reserve that, “High operating costs and lower grain prices are the biggest concerns.” Lenders responding to the second quarter Ag Credit Survey said farm incomes decreased across the Ninth District. Lenders also reported that spending on capital equipment fell, and farm household purchases edged lower on balance. Around the district, 91 percent of the agricultural lenders said incomes decreased from April through June compared to the same period a year ago. With the weaker cash position, demand for loans rose sharply. Loan repayments also dropped, and loan renewal and extension activity increased. Interest rates for agricultural loans decreased slightly but remained high. Cropland values in the Ninth District were mixed, while cash rents dropped compared to last year. 

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Top Chinese Trade Negotiator Traveling to the U.S.

The Senior Chinese trade negotiator, Li Chenggang, is expected to be in Washington, D.C., to meet with U.S. officials and continue trying to move forward from their current tariff truce. Li, who is China’s international trade representative and one of the country’s key negotiators, will likely meet with deputy-level U.S. government officials. However, a government spokesperson said the visit will not be part of a formal negotiating session. As of now, there is no formal meeting planned between Li and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer. Reuters said traders around the world are watching to see if the current tariff extension will become permanent, or if President Donald Trump will again upend global supply chains with another round of high duties on Chinese imports. At a soybean industry event in Washington, D.C., last week, China’s Ambassador said in a speech that U.S. protectionism is rampant and damaging U.S.-China agricultural cooperation.

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Consumers Shrug Off High Beef Prices

When retail prices for any product reach record-high levels, the demand usually plummets quickly. U.S. beef appears to be the exception to the basic rule of economics. Retail grocery store prices for beef skyrocketed and show no signs of descending. But demand hasn’t softened. A new report from CoBank says the allure of beef, even at high prices, is likely the result of several factors currently shaping consumer buying behaviors. The all-fresh retail beef prices surged by nine percent, hitting $8.90 per pound. CoBank says improvements in beef quality and the increased availability of premium-grade cuts at retail have played a big role in driving demand. The U.S. beef industry is producing a much higher quality of product today than it did 30 years ago. Brian Earnst, lead animal protein analyst, says access to high-quality beef has never been better, and American consumers have developed a taste for it.

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Diversifying Market Opportunities at the 2025 USSEC Soy Connext

Emphasizing the growing economic value and importance of global market diversification for U.S. Soy, international trade teams representing 34 countries have been visiting stakeholders in the U.S. Soy industry. Against a backdrop of changing trade dynamics and increasing global demand for reliable, high-quality protein and oil, Soy Connext brings together industry leaders, farmers, international buyers, and stakeholders from across the soy value chain. Over 700 people from 59 countries are attending this year’s Soy Connext in Washington. “Soy Connext is not just about celebrating the strength of U.S. Soy,” said Jim Sutter, CEO of the U.S. Soybean Export Council. “It’s about demonstrating our commitment to providing reliable, high-quality products that meet the needs of diverse international markets across every region of the world and building the strong relationships that help the U.S. achieve that.” U.S. Soy is America’s top agricultural export, contributing $31.2 billion to the U.S. economy in 2023-2024. 

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Farmers for Free Trade Hitting the Road

All summer, Farmers for Free Trade hosted Tariff Town Halls across the country to hear how their livelihoods have been turned upside down due to trade policy. From Raleigh, North Carolina, to Montana, farmers and business leaders voiced frustration with trade policies that raised costs, shrunk markets, cut take-home pay, and threw their future into limbo. These stories, backed by new research showing billions drained from the heartland, caught the attention of the media, policymakers, and communities alike. Farmers for Free Trade heard one thing loud and clear: this conversation must continue. Starting in Nebraska during September, the Motorcade for Trade RV Tour will do just that – bring listening sessions to more communities as the motorcade crisscrosses the country to give farmers and businesses a stronger platform. The Motorcade for Trade will keep the pressure on policymakers to deliver trade policies that strengthen, not weaken, America’s farms and local businesses.  

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August Food Price Outlook Rises

The USDA’s August 2025 Food Price Outlook forecasts overall food prices to increase by 2.9 percent in 2025. Food-at-home prices will rise by 2.2 percent, and food-away-from-home prices will increase by 3.9 percent. These projections suggest price increases will be close to the historical average rate for 2025, while prices are expected to grow more slowly in 2026. The USDA’s Economic Research Service says in 2026, food prices overall will increase by 2.2 percent. Food-at-home prices next year will increase by 1.2 percent, and food-away-from-home prices are predicted to rise by 3.3 percent in 2026. From June to July this year, prices declined for eight food-at-home categories, increased for six categories, and were stable for one food-at-home category. Products like beef, veal, pork, and fresh vegetables experienced price swings of larger than one percent. Two categories, eggs and fresh fruit, experienced price decreases of larger than one percent. Pork prices rose 1.3 percent as well. 

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