November 20, 2025
Cost of Thanksgiving Dinner Declines
The cost of cooking a Thanksgiving dinner is falling for the third straight year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation’s annual holiday survey. The group estimates that a traditional meal for 10 will average $55.18 this year, or about $5.52 per person—a 5% drop from 2024. Prices, however, remain above pre-pandemic levels after peaking at a record $64.05 in 2022. A sharp decline in turkey prices is driving much of the relief. A 16-pound frozen bird now averages $21.50, or about $1.34 per pound, down more than 16% from last year. While wholesale prices for fresh turkeys are higher, grocers are cutting retail prices and promoting holiday deals to boost demand. Farm Bureau volunteers collected prices during the first week of November, with USDA data showing further declines the following week. Half the survey’s Thanksgiving staples, including rolls and stuffing, fell in price as lower wheat costs helped ease flour-based items.
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Farmers Worry Renewal of Outdated Farm Bill Doesn’t Adequately Fund Critical Programs
As the federal government reopens, farmers say the temporary extension of the 2018 Farm Bill offers little relief from rising costs and growing uncertainty. President Donald Trump’s signature restored funding for the U.S. Department of Agriculture, but the farm law that underpins crop insurance, conservation programs and disaster aid is only renewed short term. Kentucky farmer Keith Lowry told the Paducah Sun that production and input costs have doubled since 2018 while commodity prices have stagnated, leaving growers without the safety net they need. He added that trade disruptions — including past tensions with China — continue to narrow export opportunities for soybeans and other crops. American Soybean Association President Caleb Ragland said reopening the government is only a first step and urged Congress to advance regulations and trade efforts that support demand. Farmers say the shutdown hindered access to loans and assistance, compounding a difficult year marked by heavy rains, drought and escalating expenses.
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White House Moving Toward Biofuels Blending Resolution
The White House has held separate meetings with oil refiners and biofuel producers as it works to resolve a long-standing dispute over U.S. biofuel-blending requirements, according to sources familiar with the discussions. Biofuels-news.com reports the talks focus on billions of gallons of blending obligations that were waived for small refineries, raising questions about whether larger refiners should make up any of the exempted volumes. A decision, originally expected by the end of October, was delayed by the federal government shutdown. The outreach reflects the administration’s effort to balance competing interests: the oil industry argues that federal mandates threaten refinery jobs, while the agricultural sector says the waivers have reduced demand for corn-based ethanol and other biofuels. The outcome could influence fuel prices, farm incomes, and energy policy heading into next year. Officials also discussed year-round sales of gasoline containing 15% ethanol, or E15, potentially linking the measure to small-refinery waiver reforms to win support from both industries.
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Safety Net Programs Set to Pay More than $13 Billion in 2026
U.S. farm safety net programs are projected to deliver more than $13.5 billion in payments for the 2025 crop year, though farmers will not receive the funds until October 2026. The payments come through the Agriculture Risk Coverage (ARC) and Price Loss Coverage (PLC) programs, which were modified under the One Big Beautiful Bill reconciliation package signed into law July 4. FarmDoc Daily reports the changes, relative to the 2018 Farm Bill, are expected to increase both the likelihood and potential size of ARC and PLC payments in 2025 and future years. Farmers who enrolled in 2025 will receive whichever payment — ARC or PLC — is higher, while enrollment choices will again influence payments starting in 2026. Estimates rely on USDA projections from the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report and data from the Farm Service Agency. Payment rates are calculated using county-level base acres, non-irrigated yields where relevant, and program simulation models, providing detailed projections ahead of next year’s disbursements.
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Escalating Trade Tensions with China Fuel Farmer Bankruptcies and Suicides
Rising tensions between the United States and China are deepening financial and emotional strain across farm country, as growers confront falling crop prices, high operating costs and a wave of bankruptcies, according to a new report by the South China Morning Post. Arkansas farmer Randal Shelby, who borrowed more than $1 million to expand his soybean and rice operation, told the outlet he expects to declare bankruptcy within weeks as tariffs, weak prices and high interest rates erase profits. Farmers interviewed said promised Chinese soybean purchases touted by President Donald Trump fall far short of the volumes once relied upon. The United States now supplies about 25 million tons of China’s annual soybean imports, far below levels before Brazil and Argentina gained market share. Farm bankruptcies nearly doubled in the second quarter, and mental-health advocates report rising suicides. Many farmers say they are uncertain what to plant next season — or whether they can keep farming at all.
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Production Agriculture Represented at COP30
More than 300 industrial-agriculture lobbyists are attending COP30 in Brazil. The number, a 14% rise from last year’s summit, includes representatives from animal agriculture, commodity grains, pesticides and biofuels — and exceeds Canada’s entire delegation. About 77 of these lobbyists are part of official country delegations, and six have elevated access to core UN negotiations. Major corporations represented include JBS, Bayer, Nestlé, Cargill and McDonald’s. The presence of agribusiness interests at the climate negotiation table signals how agriculture is increasingly intertwined with climate policy, land use, and trade. Critics warn this could undermine climate action: they say industrial agriculture is responsible for up to one-third of global emissions, and its dominant presence may shape policies in ways that favor corporate interests over environmental integrity.
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