The following GAIN reports were released on October 19, 2021.
Australia is set for a second consecutive bumper grain crop following two years of drought. For wheat and barley, during the fall planting period and winter and early spring growing period, rainfall has overall been very good across the growing regions. With harvest now commenced in the most northern winter crop producing regions, crops are now set up to achieve well above average yields. The large crops will allow for a second season of very robust exports, especially as global grain demand is expected to remain high. For the summer crops, sorghum production in MY 2021/22 is forecast to rise by seven percent and rice is forecast for a 75-percent boost in production. The good rains to date have enabled irrigation water storages to recover strongly and established above average soil moisture profiles at the point of planting and are supported by an above average rainfall forecast.
Post increased its forecast for soybean planted area to 40.5 million hectares for 2021/22, up from 39 million hectares in 2020/21. Brazil continues to expand its area because of high domestic soybean prices. Post forecasts a record harvest at 145 million metric tons (MMT), with planting starting earlier this year. For 2020/21, Post maintained the production estimate of 137 MMT. Soybean exports in 2021/22 are forecast at 92 MMT, up from 2020/21 exports estimated at 85.3 MMT. With ample supplies, Post revised imports downward, now forecast at 400,000 metric tons (MT) for 2021/22. For 2021/22, Post revised the soybean processing forecast up to 47.5 MMT based on available supply. The crush estimate for 2020/21 is unchanged at 46.5 MMT, constrained by high domestic oil prices.
The military coup continues to negatively impact Burma’s economy, and the value of the Myanmar Kyat hit record lows in September. Arriving shipments, however, are being cleared and are not facing many clearance challenges. The unstable security situation, continued disruptions in the banking sector, and depreciating local currency have contributed to rising costs for imports. This report provides situational updates from Post’s July 2021 report.
As international rice prices gained competitiveness over Chinese rice prices, significant import volumes have entered China since November 2020. Using current customs data, India is now China’s top rice supplier, with broken rice accounting for 97 percent of China’s imports from the supplier. As Chinese rice prices lost competitiveness, exports slowed down from momentum seen earlier during the years of 2017, 2018, and 2019. With high animal feed prices, Chinese rice has been substituted for corn over the last year which has also had a tightening effect on China’s rice export capacity.
Excess rains in September helped offset delayed, erratic monsoon rains of the previous months. The monsoon came to an end with an extended withdrawal in early October. Cumulatively, Southwest Monsoon rainfall was 99 percent of its long period average. Heavy rains in September coupled with improved reservoir storage have increased prospects for higher rabi crop yields. The Indian Meteorological Department has forecast normal rains during the Northeast Monsoon in southern India.
This report contains FAS-Nur-Sultan’s production estimates for MY2021/22 and trade estimates for MY2020/21. An unusually warm and dry growing season led to an earlier grain harvest, beginning in mid-August. While producers reported lower grain harvests than what was expected earlier in the year, improved wheat quality and a decreased supply on the market were expected to keep grain prices high. In September, the government’s Food Contract Corporation announced a 24 percent purchase price increase for major grains. Grain exports to China remain frustratingly low due to persistent border closures, while banking restrictions held back barley exports to Iran. The government announced a grain transaction traceability pilot program to provide greater clarity on the country’s grain production, supply, and distribution data.
On October 4, 2021, the Consumer Protection Agency (PROFECO) announced that nine brands of instant soup would be temporarily removed from the market due to noncompliance with Mexican labeling laws, namely misleading declarations regarding product content, or because of high levels of ingredients perceived to pose health risks, such as fats, salt, sugar, and calories. This announcement came just days after PROFECO published in its consumer magazine, ‘Revista del Consumidor’, a study on instant soups indicating that the excessive consumption of these products could cause severe health risks as they are high in sugar, fats, carbohydrates, and some contain ingredients made from genetically engineered (GE) material.
On October 1, 2021, Mexico published a tariff rate quota (TRQ) applicable to soybean imports from all trading partners, which took effect immediately and will be in force through December 31, 2021. The TRQ volume is 500,000 metric tons of soybeans imported under the HS code 12019002 with zero import duty. The Mexican authorities will assign the TRQ by direct allocation on a first-come, first-served basis. This report contains an overview and background information about the notice.
On October 12, 2021, the United States Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service and Morocco completed a sanitary certificate for exports of live U.S. aquatic animals. The completion of this certificate offers new opportunities for U.S. exporters of live aquatic animals, gametes and eggs of aquatic animals intended for farming, restocking and ornamental uses.
In September 2021, the Government of Niger signed the ministerial decree that defines the composition, organization, and function of the National Technical and Scientific Committee on Biosafety (CTSNB). The committee oversees the evaluation of the authorization request to introduce genetically engineered (GE) foods and/or derived products, validation of the risk management plans related to the use of GE and derived products, and examination and proposition to the Minister of Environment the decision to permit import or export of GE and derived products. This report contains a copy of the original text in French.
This report provides an overview of ag trade trends in Panama over the first half of 2021. In particular, this report highlights selected high-growth categories. Panama’s agricultural imports show strong signs of rebounding. Panama’s total agricultural and related imports are up 14% in the first half of the year, an increase of $125 million. Panama’s export performance is varied, with an overall 7% decline in dollar value of agricultural products for the first half of the year.
Poland: Poland Temporarily Suspends Veterinary Inspections on Consignments of Animal Origin at Border Control Post on the Border with Belarus
As of October 18, 2021, Poland will temporarily suspend veterinary inspections on consignments of food of animal origin in the border control post Kukuryki-Koroszczyn on the Polish-Belarussian border, as renovation works will commence. Controls of other goods, that is: animals, consignments of products not intended for human consumption and feed, as well as transit controls will be remain unchanged. It is unlikely that any U.S. product enter the EU through this BCP.
South Korea managed the COVID-19 pandemic relatively well, and consumer spending on food remained strong during the pandemic due to increased home eating. Korea’s overall agricultural imports are forecast to increase 17 percent in 2021 due to increased demand for imported products in both the retail and processing sectors. The United States is the leading supplier of imported agricultural products to Korea with a 25 percent market share. Ongoing socio-economic shifts coupled with elevated consumer attention to quality and value will generate new opportunities for U.S. food and agricultural products in Korea for years to come.
Taiwan’s MY 2021 fluid milk consumption is expected to decrease to 521,000 MT due to import delays resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic. MY 2021 domestic production of cow’s milk is estimated flat at 437,000 MT while imports are estimated to fall to 72,000 MT. In April 2021, Taiwan reported the first case of lumpy skin disease (LSD) on the main island of Taiwan and subsequently vaccinated all cattle for LSD. The United States remains the largest exporter of fluid milk to Taiwan. However, New Zealand saw another significant increase in market share this year as it moves toward full duty-free access for dairy products in 2025 under the ANZTEC agreement.